What happened last week…
The 25%tariffson Mexico and Canada, as well as the additional 10% tariff on China, went into effect on Tuesday. In response, Mexico, Canada, and China announced plans to put retaliatory tariffs on the United States. On Wednesday, President Donald Trump said that vehicles from Mexico and Canada that comply with the USMCA rules would have an exemption from tariffs one month. On Thursday, that exemption was extended to Mexican and Canadian goods covered by the USMCA. According to a White House official, about 50% of imports from Mexico and about 38% of imports from Canada would be covered under the exemption. As for the stock market’s reaction to the news of the week, weekly performances for the three major indices were as follows: DJIA (-2.37%), S&P 500 (-3.10%), NASDAQ (-3.45%).
TheADP employment changemissed expectations (148,000) as it decreased to 77,000 from the upwardly revised 186,000 (from 183,000). It is the lowest reading since July 2024 (36,000). Theunemployment ratelanded higher than expectations (4.0%) as it increased to 4.1% from 4.0%.Nonfarm payrollsmissed expectations (170,000) but increased to 151,000 from the downwardly revised 125,000 (from 143,000).Average hourly earningsmonth-over-month matched expectations as it decreased to 0.3% from the downwardly revised 0.4% (from 0.5%).
Themanufacturing PMIfor February landed below expectations (50.5) as it decreased to 50.3 from 50.9, marking back-to-back expansionary readings after 26 consecutive months in contraction (below 50). Thenon-manufacturing PMIfor February beat expectations (52.6) as it increased to 53.5 from 52.8, which marks eight straight months of expansion. The figure has expanded in 54 of the previous 57 months.
According to FactSet, as of March 7, for Q4 2024, more than 97% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings with 76% having a positive EPS surprise and 63% having a positive revenue surprise. Theblendedearnings growthfor the S&P 500 is 18.3%, which would be the highest growth for the index since Q4 2021. Theblended revenuegrowthfor the index is 5.3%, which would be the 17th straight quarter of growth.
Happening this week…
On Wednesday, theinflation rateyear-over-year for February is expected to decrease to 2.9% from 3.0%, which marked four consecutive months of increases and the highest reading since June 2024 (3.0%). The rate peaked at 9.1% in June 2022. Meanwhile, thecore inflation rateyear-over-year for February is expected to decrease to 3.2% from 3.3%, a level the metric has not surpassed since May 2024 (3.4%).
Thanks for reading!
- The Rockline Team
Rockline Wealth Management (RWM) is a registered investment adviser located in Islip Terrace, NY. RWM is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration of an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission.
The information presented above is for informational purposes only and believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed.